Tales of Risk: 14 – Ragnarök

Preparing for existential and systemic collapse

The tales we cherish often hold a mirror to our greatest organisational fears. Unlike fables that focus on human error or short-term greed, the Norse myth of Ragnarök is the ultimate allegory for an existential threat – the prophesied end of the known world. It is a story of catastrophic, systemic risk where gods, giants, and monsters engage in a final, cataclysmic battle, leading to the destruction of the cosmos.

At Imergo, we champion the power of storytelling to embed essential risk literacy and challenge organisations to look beyond immediate, linear threats. Let’s explore this powerful myth that forces us to contemplate the unthinkable and plan for the inevitable transformation of our industry or operating environment.

The Myth of Ragnarök: The Twilight of the Gods

Ragnarök, meaning “The Twilight of the Gods,” describes a future where the current order collapses entirely. Despite knowing this fate is unavoidable, the Norse gods – foremost among them Odin and his allies – do not resist the prophecy; they prepare for it. They spend centuries building the great hall of Valhalla and training armies (the Einherjar) for a final, hopeless battle. This preparation is not aimed at victory, but at ensuring they meet the end with courage and readiness, and, crucially, to safeguard the seeds of what comes next: a new, cleansed world that will emerge from the ashes.

The Risk Lesson: Preparing for systemic collapse and renewal

Ragnarök provides a stark and powerful allegory for existential risk, large-scale systemic failure, and the challenge of preparing for inevitable, albeit distant, transformation or decline. For organisations, this translates to four critical risk lessons:

• Anticipating catastrophic, systemic risk: Ragnarök represents the ultimate worst-case scenario – a complete system breakdown, far beyond a simple supply chain hiccup. In business, this calls for rigorous scenario planning for “black swan” events: market collapses, unprecedented geopolitical shifts, climate-driven disasters, or a sudden, disruptive technological shift (like the advent of generalised AI) that could fundamentally alter the operating environment. Effective governance must identify the “monsters” that could destroy the current industry structure.

• The inevitability of transformation, not just resistance: The Norse gods knew they could not win; they prepared to participate in the collapse. While a literal “end of the world” is rare, periods of fundamental industry disruption or significant decline are not. Ragnarök teaches that acknowledging the inevitability of certain shifts – such as the obsolescence of a core product or the disruptive entry of a new technology – allows for strategic preparation rather than futile, costly resistance. It’s the wisdom of knowing when the battle for the old world is lost, and when resources must be directed toward the new.

• Long-term strategic resilience (building Valhalla): The centuries the Norse gods spent preparing for the final battle underscores the need for long-term strategic resilience planning. This means investing in capabilities, infrastructure, and culture that can withstand profound shocks, even if their full impact is years or decades away. Building “Valhalla” means establishing a robust governance structure, cross-training talent, securing essential non-redundant resources, and creating a financial buffer designed to survive the prolonged, chaotic period of system breakdown.

• The potential for renewal (The seeds of the New World): Crucially, Ragnarök is followed by a rebirth where a few surviving gods inherit a new, pristine world. This speaks directly to the concept of “phoenix rising.” Even after significant disruption or failure, there is an opportunity for renewal, rebuilding, and emerging stronger, provided the “seeds” for that future are preserved. For a business, this means retaining essential institutional knowledge, protecting core ethical values, and preserving the option value to pivot or rebuild on a cleaner slate when the dust settles.

Beyond the final battle: Governance for the next world

Ragnarök compels organisations to look beyond immediate threats and consider the profound, systemic risks that could redefine their very existence.

To prepare for your industry’s “Twilight,” leaders must:

• Implement existential scenario planning: Formally designate a team to focus solely on unthinkable, non-linear threats – events that destroy your current business model entirely. What is your competitor’s Ragnarök? What is your industry’s?
• Invest in option value: Ensure a portion of R&D and strategic investment is dedicated to unrelated ventures or technologies that could thrive in a completely transformed environment, preserving the “surviving gods” that will lead the next incarnation of the company.
• Prioritise resilience over efficiency: Acknowledge that hyper-efficiency often sacrifices resilience. Invest in redundancy, decentralised decision-making, and diverse supply chains that can withstand catastrophic system failure, even if it adds short-term cost.
• Preserve institutional memory: In anticipation of potential collapse or massive restructuring, catalogue and secure core ethical principles and institutional knowledge – the necessary foundation for the eventual rebirth.